Quantitative hazard and risk assessment for slow-moving landslides from Persistent Scatterer Interferometry   总被引：6，自引：4，他引：2  

Ping Lu  Filippo Catani  Veronica Tofani  Nicola Casagli 《Landslides》2014,11(4):685-696

Preparation of reliable landslide hazard and risk maps is crucial for hazard mitigation and risk management. In recent years, various approaches have been developed for quantitative assessment of landslide hazard and risk. However, possibly due to the lack of new data, very few of these hazard and risk maps were updated after their first generation. In this study, aiming at an ongoing assessment, a novel approach for updating landslide hazard and risk maps based on Persistent Scatterer Interferometry (PSI) is introduced. The study was performed in the Arno River basin (central Italy) where most mass movements are slow-moving landslides which are properly within the detection precision of PSI point targets. In the Arno River basin, the preliminary hazard and risk assessment was performed by Catani et al. (Landslides 2:329–342, 2005) using datasets prior to 2002. In this study, the previous hazard and risk maps were updated using PSI point targets processed from 4 years (2003–2006) of RADARSAT images. Landslide hazard and risk maps for five temporal predictions of 2, 5, 10, 20 and 30 years were updated with the exposure of losses estimated in Euro (€). In particular, the result shows that in 30 years a potential loss of approximate €3.22 billion is expected due to these slow-moving landslides detected by PSI point targets.  相似文献   

On the prediction of the Toce alpine basin floods with distributed hydrologic models     

Nicola Montaldo  Giovanni Ravazzani  Marco Mancini 《水文研究》2007,21(5):608-621

With the objective of improving flood predictions, in recent years sophisticated continuous hydrologic models that include complex land‐surface sub‐models have been developed. This has produced a significant increase in parameterization; consequently, applications of distributed models to ungauged basins lacking specific data from field campaigns may become redundant. The objective of this paper is to produce a parsimonious and robust distributed hydrologic model for flood predictions in Italian alpine basins. Application is made to the Toce basin (area 1534 km²). The Toce basin was a case study of the RAPHAEL European Union research project, during which a comprehensive set of hydrologic, meteorological and physiographic data were collected, including the hydrologic analysis of the 1996–1997 period. Two major floods occurred during this period. We compare the FEST04 event model (which computes rainfall abstraction and antecedent soil moisture conditions through the simple Soil Conservation Service curve number method) and two continuous hydrologic models, SDM and TDM (which differ in soil water balance scheme, and base flow and runoff generation computations). The simple FEST04 event model demonstrated good performance in the prediction of the 1997 flood, but shows limits in the prediction of the long and moderate 1996 flood. More robust predictions are obtained with the parsimonious SDM continuous hydrologic model, which uses a simple one‐layer soil water balance model and an infiltration excess mechanism for runoff generation, and demonstrates good performance in both long‐term runoff modelling and flood predictions. Instead, the use of a more sophisticated continuous hydrologic model, the TDM, that simulates soil moisture dynamics in two layers of soil, and computes runoff and base flow using some TOPMODEL concepts, does not seem to be advantageous for this alpine basin. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Towards a climate event stratigraphy for New Zealand over the past 30 000 years (NZ‐INTIMATE project)     

Brent V. Alloway  David J. Lowe  David J. A. Barrell  Rewi M. Newnham  Peter C. Almond  Paul C. Augustinus  Nancy A. N. Bertler  Lionel Carter  Nicola J. Litchfield  Matt S. McGlone  Jamie Shulmeister  Marcus J. Vandergoes  Paul W. Williams  NZ‐INTIMATE members 《第四纪科学杂志》2007,22(1):9-35

It is widely recognised that the acquisition of high‐resolution palaeoclimate records from southern mid‐latitude sites is essential for establishing a coherent picture of inter‐hemispheric climate change and for better understanding of the role of Antarctic climate dynamics in the global climate system. New Zealand is considered to be a sensitive monitor of climate change because it is one of a few sizeable landmasses in the Southern Hemisphere westerly circulation zone, a critical transition zone between subtropical and Antarctic influences. New Zealand has mountainous axial ranges that amplify the climate signals and, consequently, the environmental gradients are highly sensitive to subtle changes in atmospheric and oceanic conditions. Since 1995, INTIMATE has, through a series of international workshops, sought ways to improve procedures for establishing the precise ages of climate events, and to correlate them with high precision, for the last 30 000 calendar years. The NZ‐INTIMATE project commenced in late 2003, and has involved virtually the entire New Zealand palaeoclimate community. Its aim is to develop an event stratigraphy for the New Zealand region over the past 30 000 years, and to reconcile these events against the established climatostratigraphy of the last glacial cycle which has largely been developed from Northern Hemisphere records (e.g. Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), Termination I, Younger Dryas). An initial outcome of NZ‐INTIMATE has been the identification of a series of well‐dated, high‐resolution onshore and offshore proxy records from a variety of latitudes and elevations on a common calendar timescale from 30 000 cal. yr BP to the present day. High‐resolution records for the last glacial coldest period (LGCP) (including the LGM sensu stricto) and last glacial–interglacial transition (LGIT) from Auckland maars, Kaipo and Otamangakau wetlands on eastern and central North Island, marine core MD97‐2121 east of southern North Island, speleothems on northwest South Island, Okarito wetland on southwestern South Island, are presented. Discontinuous (fragmentary) records comprising compilations of glacial sequences, fluvial sequences, loess accumulation, and aeolian quartz accumulation in an andesitic terrain are described. Comparisons with ice‐core records from Antarctica (EPICA Dome C) and Greenland (GISP2) are discussed. A major advantage immediately evident from these records apart from the speleothem record, is that they are linked precisely by one or more tephra layers. Based on these New Zealand terrestrial and marine records, a reasonably coherent, regionally applicable, sequence of climatically linked stratigraphic events over the past 30 000 cal. yr is emerging. Three major climate events are recognised: (1) LGCP beginning at ca. 28 000 cal. yr BP, ending at Termination I, ca. 18 000 cal. yr BP, and including a warmer and more variable phase between ca. 27 000 and 21 000 cal. yr BP, (2) LGIT between ca. 18 000 and 11 600 cal. yr BP, including a Lateglacial warm period from ca. 14 800 to 13 500 cal. yr BP and a Lateglacial climate reversal between ca. 13 500 and 11 600 cal. yr BP, and (3) Holocene interglacial conditions, with two phases of greatest warmth between ca. 11 600 and 10 800 cal. yr BP and from ca. 6 800 to 6 500 cal. yr BP. Some key boundaries coincide with volcanic tephras. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Development of the Global Earthquake Model’s neotectonic fault database   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Annemarie Christophersen  Nicola Litchfield  Kelvin Berryman  Richard Thomas  Roberto Basili  Laura Wallace  William Ries  Gavin P. Hayes  Kathleen M. Haller  Toshikazu Yoshioka  Richard D. Koehler  Dan Clark  Monica Wolfson-Schwehr  Margaret S. Boettcher  Pilar Villamor  Nick Horspool  Teraphan Ornthammarath  Ramon Zuñiga  Robert M. Langridge  Mark W. Stirling  Tatiana Goded  Carlos Costa  Robert Yeats 《Natural Hazards》2015,79(1):111-135

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FIES: The high‐resolution Fiber‐fed Echelle Spectrograph at the Nordic Optical Telescope     

J.H. Telting  G. Avila  L. Buchhave  S. Frandsen  D. Gandolfi  B. Lindberg  H.C. Stempels  the NOT staff  S. Prins 《Astronomische Nachrichten》2014,335(1):41-45

FIES is a cross‐dispersed high‐resolution echelle spectrograph at the 2.56 m Nordic Optical Telescope (NOT), and was optimised for throughput and stability in 2006. The major 2006 upgrade involved the relocation of FIES to a stable environment and development of a fiber bundle that offers 3 different resolution modes, and made FIES an attractive tool for the user community of the NOT. Radial‐velocity stability is achieved through double‐chamber active temperature control. A dedicated data reduction tool, FIEStool, was developed. As a result of these upgrades, FIES is now one of the work‐horse instruments at the NOT. (© 2014 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)  相似文献   

Modelling of spatial controls on denitrification at the landscape scale     

M. J. Whelan  C. Gandolfi 《水文研究》2002,16(7):1437-1450

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Analysis of climatic trends in data from the agrometeorological station of Bologna-Cadriano, Italy (1952–2007)     

Philipp Matzneller  Francesca Ventura  Nicola Gaspari  Paola Rossi Pisa 《Climatic change》2010,100(3-4):717-731

Agriculture is highly exposed to climate change, as farming activities directly depend on climatic conditions. Knowledge of the extent of such change and of related phenomena will help to answer the questions posed by society about adaptation strategies. The global situation is well described by the Fourth IPCC assessment report (IPCC 2007), but local studies are important to understand the impact and the priorities to adopt in adaptation strategies. In this study a historical set of meteorological data, collected during the period 1952–2007 at the University of Bologna (Italy) agrometeorological station, was analysed. Several indexes, such as Frost Severity Index, number of hot days, number of rainy days, etc., were calculated, and their trends in time were analysed. The results show a scenario of increasing temperatures and evapotranspiration, a decrease in rainy days and a deepening of the watertable. The effect of these changes on agriculture will be a decrease in water availability, an increase in heat stress in plants and an increase in drought risk.  相似文献   

1999年欧洲圣诞节风暴数值模拟分析     

Claudio Cassardo  ;Nicola Loglisci  ;Min Wei Qian  ;Silvia Ferrarese  ;Arnaldo Longhetto  ;Gianpaolo Balsamo 《气象与减灾研究》2008,31(2):6-13

对1999年圣诞期间发生在欧洲中西部的圣诞节风暴进行了分析,认为4个主要的低气压系统中的第二个给法国北部带来了强风暴雨,巴黎的Orly机场阵风速度〉47m／s;第四个低压系统沿法国西海岸产生相似的恶劣天气,并在西班牙的北部海岸及地中海沿岸国家造成了毁灭性的破坏。在法国中部风暴最剧烈的时候,最大阵风〉41m／s;在法国和德国之间的区域,达55m／s。圣诞节风暴造成欧洲国家大约140人死亡,其他损失包括树木、街道和房屋被毁,电力系统和电话中断时间长达数天,受影响的人数大约为1000万,财产损失大约为80亿美元。由于风暴的极端强度和快速发展速度,欧洲大多数国家的数值预报中心没有对这次剧烈天气提供足够的预警。为此,利用中尺度数值预报系统（RAMS）模拟圣诞节风暴,并与ECMWF分析资料以及实况观测资料进行了对比分析。结果表明,RAMS模式能够准确模拟风暴的主要特性、低气压的演变和位置移动、发展的关键时间点、风暴演化期间的平均风场;模拟的平均风场和气象观测网的观测结果相一致;模拟的风暴移动时间和主要新闻媒体的报道相吻合;模式计算的一些特定地区平均风速的时间趋势显示,在阿尔卑斯山脉地区,无论是上风区还是下风区,风暴的时间都被准确地预测;模拟的第一次风暴最低气压值较实际值偏低。  相似文献   

Simulations of the supersonic radiative jet propagation in plasmas     

X. Ribeyre  P. Nicolaï  S. Galera  V. T. Tikhonchuk 《Astrophysics and Space Science》2009,322(1-4):85-90

Supersonic plasma jets are ubiquitous in astrophysics. Our study focus on the jets emanated from Herbig-Haro (HH) objects. They have velocities of a few hundred km/s and are extending over the distances more than a parsec. Interaction of the jets with surrounding matter produces two specific structures in the jet head: the bow shock and the Mach disk. The radiative cooling of these shocks affects strongly the jet dynamics. A tool to understand the physics of these jets is the laboratory experiment. A supersonic jet interaction with surrounding plasma was studied on the PALS laser facility. A collimated high-Z plasma jet with a velocity exceeding 400 km/s was generated and propagated over a few millimeters length. Here we report on study the effect of radiative cooling on the head jet structure with a 2D radiative hydrodynamic code. The simulation results demonstrated the scalability of the experimental observations to the HH jets.  相似文献   

Historical behaviour of Dome C and Talos Dome (East Antarctica) as investigated by snow accumulation and ice velocity measurements     

Stefano Urbini  Massimo Frezzotti  Stefano Gandolfi  Christian Vincent  Claudio Scarchilli  Luca Vittuari  Michel Fily 《Global and Planetary Change》2008,60(3-4):576-588

Ice divide–dome behaviour is used for ice sheet mass balance studies and interpretation of ice core records. In order to characterize the historical behaviour (last 400 yr) of Dome C and Talos Dome (East Antarctica), ice velocities have been measured since 1996 using a GPS system, and the palaeo-spatial variability of snow accumulation has been surveyed using snow radar and firn cores. The snow accumulation distribution of both domes indicates distributions of accumulation that are non-symmetrical in relation to dome morphology. Changes in spatial distributions have been observed over the last few centuries, with a decrease in snow accumulation gradient along the wind direction at Talos Dome and a counter-clockwise rotation of accumulation distribution in the northern part of Dome C. Observations at Dome C reveal a significant increase in accumulation since the 1950s, which could correlate to altered snow accumulation patterns due to changes in snowfall trajectory. Snow accumulation mechanisms are different at the two domes: a wind-driven snow accumulation process operates at Talos Dome, whereas snowfall trajectory direction is the main factor at Dome C. Repeated GPS measurements made at Talos Dome have highlighted changes in ice velocity, with a deceleration in the NE portion, acceleration in the SW portion and migration of dome summit, which are apparently correlated with changes in accumulation distribution. The observed behaviour in accumulation and velocity indicates that even the most remote areas of East Antarctica have changed from a decadal to secular scale.  相似文献